A column about media, broadcasting and the regulatory environment
RIP: Frank Fanstone, former News Director at CKTB and CHRE, who passed away peacefully at Greater Niagara General Hospital on Tuesday at the age of 65. He began his broadcast career at CHSC and CHRE in 1970. In 1998 when CHRE became part of the CKTB and CHTZ broadcasting network, he became News Director and remained so until he retired in 2001.
-- Ian Thomas recently dropped by Newstalk 1010 for a chat with long time friend and Saturday afternoon host Ted Woloshyn. Ian is plugging his return to recording with the release of a symphonic best-of collection, aptly titled A Life In Song. Here's the conversation, in HD:
-- PwC has released its annual Global Entertainment and Media Outlook 2016-2020, an in-depth five-year outlook for global consumer spending and advertising revenues directly related to entertainment and media (E&M) content. Despite a relative slower growth projection for the industry at large, PwC's Outlook forecasts U.S. E&M spending to reach $720b by 2020, from $603b in 2015. Despite continued widespread industry disruption and intense competition for consumer attention, growth opportunities abound for companies to capitalize on the new media environment, says PwC.
"Today's entertainment and media reality is one of companies intensely competing for dollars with the increasing proliferation of free online media alternatives. This global multi-speed media landscape has created unprecedented challenges for companies in the battle for customers and value," said Deborah Bothun, PwC's Global and U.S. Entertainment & Media Leader. "The acceleration of digital and technology innovation is expected to continue to force companies to innovate and reimagine the industry as we know it."
Globally, E&M worldwide revenues are expected to rise at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 4.4% over the next five years, from $1.7 trillion in 2015 to $2.1t in 2020.
Key U.S. Entertainment & Media Highlights
Internet advertising in the US remains the largest in the world with $59.6b in revenue for 2015, and a projected revenue of $93.5b by 2020 (9.4 percent CAGR). While China's forecast (14% CAGR) is higher, the US should remain the largest market by some distance in revenue terms. By 2017, Internet advertising ($75.3b) is poised to overtake broadcast TV advertising for the first time in the US. However, broadcast TV advertising has responded fairly robustly to digital disruption and is expected to remain healthy with a projected 2.8% CAGR and $70.4b by 2017.
Mobile advertising continues to be one of the big growth stories, making up 34.7% of total Internet ad revenue at $20.7b in 2015 and projected to rise to 49.4% by 2020. But the rise in mobile video Internet ad revenue will be the most remarkable, from $3.5b in 2015 to $13.3b in 2020 (30.3 percent CAGR). PwC expects the planned rollout of 5G networks will further accelerate the shift towards mobile consumption of video.
"Consumers are engaging with media increasingly on their mobile phones, and even at work. These mobile behaviors are challenging the traditional value of attention and the ability to monetize advertising dollars. There's no one perfect metric to inform advertisers of the value they get when you consider the shifting consumer behaviors," said PwC's Bothun. "However, the market will be hindered by consumer resistance to a poor ad experience and potential widespread adoption of ad-blocking technology."
As for Cinema, China is expected to overtake the US in box office revenue in 2017, marking this as the first time the US has not held the leading position in an E&M segment. By 2020, China box office revenues are expected to reach $15.1b versus $11.0b in the US.
TV and video is expected to rise from $121.4b to $124.2b in 2020 (0.5% CAGR). The continued growth of video on demand (VOD) and over-the-top (OTT) services is putting pressure on the "theatrical window" period traditionally enjoyed by cinemas. In fact, electronic home video sales ($11.2b, 9% CAGR) eclipsed box office sales ($10.3b, 1.2% CAGR) in 2015 – two years earlier than last year's Outlook projected.
Internet access revenue is expected to rise to $181.7b over the forecast period (7.2% CAGR). Internet users are increasing the time they spend with digital media – especially rich media such as video, which is expected to rise to 85.5% of total data traffic by 2020. Considerable investments are being made to improve infrastructure speed and quality to enable both the traditional use of Internet access as well as streaming online television, videos, video games, and other media consumption.
Video games revenue is expected to rise from $17.0b to $20.3b by 2020 (3.6% CAGR). Despite the high price, the quality of the experience on virtual reality devices (for games, interactive entertainment and VR video) is expected to draw more consumers into trying them, setting the stage for the real sales drive in 2017 and 2018. In contrast, VR on mobile devices will likely go mainstream in 2016 with cheap headsets that can be slotted into a phone.
Newspaper publishing is expected to decline at a 2.9% CAGR in the years to 2020. In a world where social networks are Internet on-ramps for many consumers, publishers are recognizing they are no longer destinations, but suppliers of content. Further industry consolidation can be expected as publishers search for efficiencies to create new consumer touchpoints and respond to digital competition.
Live experiences remain a key differentiator in a digital world. With consumers now having an astonishing array of choice delivered to their hands via the content available on a smartphone, an increasing premium is placed upon the live experience, including the rapid growth of eSports tournaments.
Additional Industry Segments
- Business-to-business is expected to rise from $85.6b to $99.8b in 2020
- Book publishing revenue is expected to rise from $37.8b to $43.7b in 2020
- Magazine publishing revenue is expected to grow from $30.5b to $30.7b)
- Out-of-home advertising is expected to rise from $8.8b to $10.9b by 2020
- Radio is expected to rise from $21.4b to $23.1b in 2020
- Music revenue is expected to increase from $15.2b to $18.0b in 2020
- TV advertising revenue is expected to rise from $69.9b to $81.7b in 2020
"For content providers across the entertainment and media industry, the message is clear: seamless delivery and a focus on the consumer experience is the formula for growth in today's evolved E&M business landscape," said Bothun. "With a clearer picture of what's ahead, savvy companies will be best positioned to embrace change and choose a path that allows them to look ahead with confidence."
-- iHeartMedia has launched iHeart80s in San Francisco. The all new ‘80s dedicated station will feature by top rank acts from the era such as Madonna, Michael Jackson, and Duran Duran. In February, iHeartMedia held its first-ever iHeart80s Party, hosted by former MTV personality Martha Quinn, which celebrated the decade with performances by ‘80s stars that included Tears For Fears, Culture Club, Billy Idol, Missing Persons, Rick Springfield, and Loverboy.
-- After announcing her departure from CP24 seven months back, Ann Rohmer returned to anchor the evening show at the Toronto news hub.
-- After a mild rebuke, the Commission has renewed the license for Type B Native radio CKTI-FM Kettle Point from 1 Sept, 2016 to 31 Aug. 2022.
Lives Lived: Merv Stone, Husband, father, broadcast pioneer, mensch. Born on June 16, 1926 in Winnipeg; died on Feb. 4, 2016, in Toronto, of natural causes, aged 89 -- Globe & Mail
30 ways to make you unstoppable: A lot of people are good at what they do. Some are even elite. A select few are completely unstoppable -- Success